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Feb. 6, 2007 at 9:13am Eastern by Greg Sterling
Keyword Research And Consumer Demand
Kevin Delaney at the Wall Street Journal (subscription required) today has an interesting article that borrows a page from John Battelle's "database of intentions" idea of search as a kind of repository for consumer demand, buzz meter and perpetual focus group all in one.
The article discusses how marketers are using search to help conduct research and development, launch new products and predict potential product success based on perceived consumer demand -- all via search volumes:
There is evidence that data about consumer searches could prove valuable to businesses in other ways. As part of an experiment, Google analyzed search-query volumes related to movies released in 2005 and compared them with opening weekend box-office revenue for each movie. The company found that it could predict with 82% or higher accuracy based on consumer search activity as early as six weeks before the opening whether a film would top $25 million in receipts its first weekend.
While Hollywood studios already have other ways, such as consumer surveys, for helping predict blockbusters, the Google experiment shows how an automated approach could be brought to the issue. The Internet company believes there are potential applications of similar analyses in other industries, such as using search-query activity to anticipate consumer demand in order to staff call centers appropriately.
In a related vein, search can and is being used by marketers as a tool to track the effectiveness of traditional media campaigns as well.
But Kevin's article is very interesting for what it implies about the future and innovative ways in which search can be used -- not simply as a direct response marketing vehicle but much more broadly and at various stages of the product development cycle.
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By Greg Sterling
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See Related Stories In: Search Engines: Word Of Mouth & Buzz Search Engines, Search Marketing: Search Term Research
I often hear discussions about how search is a tool for marketing efforts beyond search itself. In fact, as Google started rolling out their off-line efforts, one of the pitches was the use of search measurements to gauge the effectiveness of traditional advertising programs. While I think there is some merit to this concept, we should keep in mind that, once outside the search box, there are many marketing players with history in these areas. In my view, Google was a bit optimistic about the chances that they would become a core metric of offline results (to be fair, they have not had much time yet). Measuring the effectiveness of advertising using search is not ideal. Particularly given the challenge of trust with advertisers that the company as created around the secrecy (necessarily so) of their algorithms, how they measure click fraud, and lack of transparency on pre-launch search and click data estimates. If there is little trust around the numbers, is an advertiser going to accept Google’s advise to spend more on radio and newspaper ads because their (Google’s) numbers show its working? Trust is not an on again, off again thing. If search is going to be used as a metric, third parties are going to have to play a big part.