Some key takeaways from Conductor’s survey of Fortune 500 search marketing efforts include:

• Only 15% of Fortune 500 companies have “mid to strong presence” in natural search results for the same keywords on which they advertise the most.
• 53% have “no natural search visibility for their most advertised keywords” — meaning they don’t show up in the Top 100 results
• Collectively, the Fortune 500 spent about $3.4 million per day on more than 97,000 keywords, but they show up in the Top 50 of natural search results for only 25% of those keywords

That final statistic — showing up in the Top 50 natural results on 25% of overall keywords — is actually an improvement from the same study a year ago, when Fortune 500 companies only ranked in the Top 50 for 17% of their primary paid keywords.

Conductor worked with SpyFu to analyze the natural search results of the Fortune 500 companies, using the top five traffic-generating URLs for each company and the keywords they advertise on the most.

After careful review of our Associates programme, we have made the decision that as of February 1, 2010, we will no longer pay referral fees to Associates who send users to www.amazon.co.uk, http://astore.amazon.co.uk or www.javari.co.uk through keyword bidding or other paid search on Google, Bing, Yahoo!, or any other search engine, or their extended search networks. In connection with this change, as of February 1, 2010, we will no longer provide Associates who engage in such paid search activities with access to our Product Advertising API or datafeeds. If you are currently enrolled in the Associates Programme as a Paid Search Placement Associate and wish to continue to participate in the Programme after February 1, 2010, you must choose a new category that most accurately describes the method you will use to send users to the Amazon.co.uk or Javari.co.uk site. Of course, just choosing a new category is not sufficient – you will also need to stop sending traffic via paid search links, as you will no longer be paid for such traffic starting on February 1, regardless of what category you choose.

This seems to be consistent with the email they sent US affiliates in April, which went into effect on May 1st. That email read:

After careful review of how we are investing our advertising resources, we have made the decision to no longer pay referral fees to Associates who send users to www.amazon.com, www.amazon.ca, or www.endless.com through keyword bidding and other paid search on Google, Yahoo, MSN, and other search engines. As of May 1, 2009, these paid search Associates will not be paid referral fees.

But get this, not only will Amazon stop paying affiliates for search ads, but also natural search traffic. The email continued and said:

In addition, as of February 1, 2010 we will no longer pay referral fees on purchases made by customers who are referred to www.amazon.co.uk or www.javari.co.uk via Free Search Results. Free Search Results are links containing an Associate’s tag displayed in a search engine’s free, natural, or organic search results in response to a search query which send customers directly to an Amazon site without the customer first being sent to an Associate’s site and the customer clicking on a link to arrive at the Amazon site.

So how do you make money through search and Amazon. Send the traffic to your site and then have them click from your site to Amazon’s web site.

Just like last year, I’ve been collecting links to as many articles as I could find that offer predictions and resolutions for 2010 to create the following big list. And you’re welcome to let me know what I missed down in the comments.

SEO

• Search Engine Land: Link Building Trends For 2010
• Search Engine Watch: 5 New Year Resolutions for Search Marketers in 2010
• Acidgreen: SEO Trends in 2010: Search Engine Optimization Techniques for Online Marketers
• Internet Marketing Inc.: Three 2010 SEO Trends to Look Out For: Social Media, Onpage SEO & Link Diversity
• Small Business Trends: SEO Trends to Watch for in 2010
• SEOptimise: 20 SEO New Year’s Resolutions for 2010
• Search Engine Land: 6 New Years Resolutions For In-House SEMs
• Search Engine Journal: 2010: A New Age For Search Marketers
• SEOmoz: 8 Predictions for SEO in 2010
• David Harry: White Coat SEO resolutions for the New Year

Search Marketing/PPC

• Search Engine People: My 3 PPC Resolutions – Why 2010 Will be Defined by Mobile, Facebook and the Website Optimizer
• PPC Without Pity: Three PPC Predictions For 2010
• Search Engine Land: My PPC New Year Resolutions
• Search Engine Watch: Search Marketing 2010: Plan ahead by looking back
• PPC Hero: 5 PPC Resolutions for 2010
• Search Engine Land: Five Search Marketing Predictions For 2010
• Web.com: 5 Pay-Per-Click Trends to Watch in 2010
• Google: Think2010: Personalization and accountability (Google AdWords video series)
• Search Engine Land: 2010 Planning: 3 Tips To Improve Search Results Next Year
• eMarketer: eMarketer Weighs In on 2010: Online Advertising & Usage

Local/Mobile Search

• GigaOM: Will 2010 Finally be the Year of Location?
• Local SEO Guide: Local SEO Predictions 2010
• Mashable: Location, Location, Location: 5 Big Predictions for 2010
• Small Business Trends: Five Can’t-Miss Mobile Marketing Trends For 2010
• Search Engine Land: Predictions For The Changing Local Search Landscape In 2010
• Marketing Charts: Top 10 Wireless Predictions for 2010

Social Media

• Social Media Explorer: Five Things We Should All Do In 2010
• Mashable: Facebook: 5 Predictions for 2010
• ReadWriteWeb: 10 Ways Social Media Will Change In 2010
• Dan Zarrella: My Predictions for Social Media Marketing in 2010
• DreamGrow Digital: 22 Social Media Marketing Trends for 2010
• Social Media B2B: 11 B2B Social Media Predictions For 2010
• eMarketer: eMarketer Weighs In on 2010 Trends: Social Media & Paid Content
• Search Engine Land: 12 Social Media New Year’s Resolutions For 2010
• 10e20: 6 More Social Media New Year’s Resolutions For 2010
• Harvard Business Review: Six Social Media Trends for 2010
• 451 Marketing: Top Social Media Strategists to Watch in 2010
• SmartBlog on Social Media: Looking ahead to 2010 with Shiv Singh

Video

• Reel SEO: 11 Predictions for the Online Video Industry in 2010
• VidiSEO: 2010 Video Marketing Predictions

Analytics

• Search Engine Land: 5 Web Analytics New Year Resolutions
• Avinash Kaushik: Five Sweet Web Analytics Resolutions To Kick It Up A Notch

General Online Marketing

• Online Marketing Blog: 5 Online Marketing Resolutions for 2010
• Conversation Marketing: 11 internet marketing trends to ignore in 2010
• Search Agents: The Search Agents Predictions for Online Marketing in 2010
• Search Cowboys: Disa Johnson’s 2010 predictions
• Online Marketing Blog: 5 Top Email Marketing Tactics for 2010
• Ad Age: 9 Digital Marketing Mistakes I Won’t Make Next Year
• Hit Search: 43 Internet Marketing predictions for 2010
• MediaPost: 10 Things Changing Marketing In 2010
• Mashable: Marketing in 2010: It’s All About the Data
• Fast Company: 10 Marketing Predictions for 2010
• Search Engine Land: 5 Things On My B2B Wishlist For 2010
• Jeremiah Owyang: 2010 Trends: More Speed and Integration (video)
• eMarketer: Seven Predictions for 2010 from eMarketer’s CEO
• Forrester: 2010: The Year Marketing Dies…
• eMarketer: eMarketer Weighs In on 2010 Trends: UK & Europe
• Online Marketing Blog: SES Chicago: Internet Marketing Tips for 2010
• Web Profits: 2010 Online Marketing Predictions
• Evan Carmichael: The Top 50 Marketing Blogs To Watch in 2010

Miscellaneous

• Small Business Trends: Public Relations Trends for 2010
• Kosmix: Some predictions for 2010
• ineedhits: Our Search Wishlist for 2010
• Small Business Trends: Top Web Design Trends For Small Business In 2010
• John Battelle: Predictions 2010
• PR Squared: 2010 Predictions for Communications
• New York Times: Five Tech Themes for 2010
• TechCrunch: Ten Technologies That Will Rock 2010
• New York Times: Five 2010 Predictions About Tech Companies
• Google Operating System: Predictions for Google’s 2010
• USA Today: Ask an Expert: Top 10 Trends in Small Business for 2010 (Part 1)
• USA Today: Ask an Expert: Top 10 Trends in Small Business for 2010 (Part 2)
• CNN: 2010: Year of digital distraction?
• Web Design Ledger: Web Design Trends for 2010
• iMedia Connection: 9 digital trends to watch in 2010
• Digital Media Buzz: Top Digital Trends For 2010
• CNN: 10 Web trends to watch in 2010
• Trendwatching: 10 Crucial Consumer Trends for 2010

High keyword prices will drive marketers to try new strategies to boost ROI

While the growth in the number of searches occurring each month may be beginning to slow, the pace of advertiser dollars pouring into paid search won’t. The result: rising keyword prices are here to stay. According to Forrester Research, two-thirds of marketers report that high keyword prices are their biggest challenge in paid search. More importantly, this is a problem that can’t be solved with just a better bidding solution. Smart marketers will be forced to focus on driving increased ROI from their campaign tactics, through a combination of intelligent keyword management, testing, and targeting.

Optimizing for Quality Score will top the list, as an easy way to drive costs down and conversions up through effective keyword selection, match type refinement and use of negatives. Options such as geographic and demographic targeting will also see increased adoption. Expect geotargeting tactics to move beyond the realm of traditional local and financial services players and be used by more traditional national advertisers and retailers. Marketers that invest in testing and applying these tactics will reap not only increased ROI and revenues, but strategic advantage in an increasingly competitive market.

Paid search will become more integrated with the enterprise

With search representing over half of digital marketing budgets, it was only a matter of time before C-level executives took notice. For large advertisers, search now represents tens of millions of dollars in marketing spend annually—and this surge in spending happened almost overnight. As a result, paid search marketing programs are still managed separately from traditional marketing and business units.

Going forward, however, expect organizations to integrate paid search budgeting, reporting and controls more tightly into business units, rather than continuing to allow search to operate as a purely standalone unit. The result of this tighter integration will be a rethinking for search marketers in terms of how reporting and KPI’s are organized and more importantly how this information is communicated upward in the organization through the use of dashboards and proposals for investment. For search marketers who can adjust to this changing landscape, the reward will be more executive buy-in and larger budgets.

Paid search will go multi-channel

Multi-channel marketers have always been at a disadvantage in the search marketing game. According to research by Yahoo and comScore, over half of online shoppers research on the web before purchasing in another channel, such as in a store. That means that search marketers are missing out on credit for half of the revenues their campaigns are driving. In recent years, however, the tools and techniques for measuring across channels have become increasingly accessible—whether it’s tying dynamic phone numbers to keywords, or taking in store surveys to measure search referral traffic.

As marketers perfect these techniques, expect multi-channel merchants to get smarter about how much and where they are spending their search dollars to drive both online and offline conversions. By identifying the whitespace where offline buyers are researching and servicing their needs, multi-channel merchants can find new, low cost keyword inventory to drive profitable expansion of paid-search programs.

More money will flow to the content network

The Google content network already reaches 80% of internet users and accounts for a large and growing percentage of overall PPC spend. But changes by Google in the past year have made targeting on the content network more powerful than ever. With the ability to target not only based on keywords, but also on placements, marketers can now narrow in on audiences exhibiting very specific behaviors.

For example, if you are selling sports equipment you can target your ads to people reading the sports section of their local newspaper and adjust the content of your ad based on keywords that are in the article such as “tennis” or “golf.” Being able to refine and control where ads are shown not only gives marketers the comfort of knowing their brand is safe, but also allows them to acquire higher value clicks and ultimately a higher return on their ad dollars. With a new set of software tools emerging that help marketers manage and optimize placements at a granular level, expect more paid search dollars and attention to flow towards the content network.

Facebook and Twitter will emerge as serious challengers to Google

Search engines today serve over 25 billion queries a month in North America alone, with the lion’s share of those queries serviced by Google. But it’s never too early to watch out for the new kid on the block. Facebook today handles over a billion queries a month, and that number is growing. With such a large audience, it’s hard to believe they will allow those searches to go un-monetized for long. Expect Facebook to extend their own search technology to allow users to query the stream of user-generated content in their news feeds. When they do, users will find it much easier to get recommendations from friends on where to go for the best pizza, whether or not they should buy an iPhone, or which movie they should see this weekend. Once this happens, expect lots of advertising dollars, particularly for keyword placements, to follow quickly.

Search marketers will have to adjust to a different, more social, keyword set and tailor their messaging to the needs of social networkers. In doing so, however, they will be able to catch consumers earlier in the consideration cycle than they can on traditional search engines like Google and Yahoo! Since people looking for recommendations from friends are still in the research phase of buying a product—and they place great trust in recommendations that come from their social networks—the value of these clicks could potentially be high.

While you can’t chase all of these trends, smart marketers will apply the right ones for their business. Whether it is improving measurement, campaign quality, audience targeting or simply finding new channels, marketers who can capitalize on some of these trends first will likely have a leg up on the competition. If you see other trends in the marketplace, I’d love to hear your predictions in the comments section below.

In that year, the Online Advertising Discussion List was one of the primary ways that internet marketers communicated with each other about trends and tactics. We didn’t have forums. We didn’t have Twitter. We didn’t have AdWords. And we walked eight miles through the snow to even use a search engine.

Richard Hoy posted this to the list in November 1997. I’ll bold the key part, as well as key parts in other quotes further below:

I’m beginning to believe that search engines are a dead-end technology and fretting over where your site comes up is a big waste of time. I’m now advising clients that we create good META tags, submit the site and then forget it.

I base this newfound philosophy on a couple of things. First, I’ve noticed on the sites we manage that the percent of traffic from search engines drops as the investment in other types promotion increase.

For example, The Year 2000 Information Center ( http://www.year2000.com/ ), a site we own and promote heavily through PR and co-promotional arrangements, had 6% of its traffic come from search engines last month. 94% came from sources such as online articles, co-promotion, and people using a bookmark.

I see the exact opposite situation in the traffic reports of sites that we do little promotion for. The bulk of their traffic comes from search engines. And that makes perfect sense because without promotion search engines are the only way people can find these sites…

How can such an unstable system survive? Moreover, how can you ever hope to be on top of it for long?

So in closing, I submit that search engines are dying. In fact, I would say they are dead already and just don’t know it yet – gone the way of the reciprocal link exchange and the “you have a cool page” award as an effective promotional tool. A victim of their own success.

Now compare that to what Robert Scoble wrote today in his “2010: the year SEO isn’t important anymore?” post:

I came away from this conversations thinking that SEO is getting dramatically less important and that SEM should be renamed to “OM” for “Online Marketing” since small businesses need to take a much more holistic approach to marketing than just worrying about search results.

So just over 12 years ago, we had someone saying pretty much the same thing that Scoble wrote today. You shouldn’t worrying about search, or that you should certainly be doing more than search.

Well, duh. I don’t know any search marketer worth their salt who suggests that anyone should fixate only on search marketing alone. As I responded to Scoble in my comment:

SEO, for the record, is the activity of ensuring you are well listed in any search results that are offered to a user for free. So small businesses don’t need to worry about SEO? Hey, the top box on Google is often taken up by a map with a “4 pack” or “10 pack” of listings.

Those listings are something that small businesses can claim. And if you claim them, adjusting things like your address (if not correct) or your business title (such as ensuring you are descriptive for important terms) can have dramatic effect on whether you get listed. And that, my friend, is also SEO….

As for renaming search marketing to online marketing. What on earth are you talking about? I mean seriously, where have you been since the internet broke out?

There’s always been online marketing, which is the umbrella term of marketing — well — online. It includes things like social media marketing, link building, email marketing, virtual worlds marketing and yes, search marketing. Some online marketers can do all these things. Many specialize, just as in the real world, someone might do outdoors advertising versus television ads.

The biggest issue for small businesses is one that we probably both agree on — that online can simply be overwhelming for them.

And if I go back to how I responded to Hoy in 1997:

People need to understand that they may not stay on top for a particular phrase, especially if its popular, for a long time. They certainly shouldn’t build all a site’s traffic around it. But they may still do very well for a variety of more obscure terms and topics. If they have meta tags and page titles relevant to the topic of their pages, this well help them capture this basically free traffic. But again, moderation, rather obsession, should be the rule.

They should have never been what people depending on for 100% of their traffic. But to invest a little time to pick up 10% or more of traffic? I’d hardly say they are dying. They certainly aren’t in the perspective of those who use them to find things. But those people who used to cruise along on traffic from search engines — and search engines only — certainly need to realize those happy days are over. They have to be part of a comprehensive publicity program.

You can read what others had to say back then here. But I think if SEO hasn’t died in the 12 years since it was first predicted, it isn’t going away any time soon.

SEO is more than ranking web pages.

SEO is not about tricking search engines.

SEO is not a complete online marketing plan, but…

SEO — and search marketing in general — isn’t something a smart marketer should ignore or just leave to chance.

If you’re a small business and don’t think search is worthwhile, I’d suggest reading Searching For Small Businesses, Coming Up Frustrated, a post from me about trying to find businesses like you and having huge problems. Simple changes could solve that and bring you more business. You do want more business, right? Also check out Lisa Barone’s response to Scoble, Ignore the Silly Man, SEO Still Matters For SMBs.

For those of you who assume SEO is all about trickery, Thoughts On Web Developers, SEO & Reputation Problems is a recent post from me that looks at that issue.

And for anyone who cares, I just remain puzzled after all these years how anyone could think the answer is only think about search or don’t think about search at all. Why these extremes? Why an either/or?

The company said CTRs on “Bing [are] over 75% higher than those who come from Google.” However, AOL users show the greatest CTRs at 2.5 percent.

An important caveat to all this is that Google’s search volumes are much higher than Bing’s or AOL’s so the ratio of clicks to impressions is necessarily going to be lower. The same number of clicks against a greater number of impressions will produce a lower CTR. The real question is whether the same Bing/Ask/AOL CTRs would be sustained at higher traffic volumes.

Earlier studies have also shown lower “conversion rates” for Google vs. other engines. Previously, comScore data have shown different and higher CTRs for the various engines.

Postscript: It was suggested to me in an email that the reason that Google’s competitors see these higher clicks is because they put ads more often in the top-center of the page.

Based on “41 million clicks on Google, Yahoo! and Bing during Q3-Q4 of 2008 and 2009,” SearchIgnite found that Bing is doing well with retailers (and e-commerce consumers):

Retailers have spent 47% more on search ads on Bing in Q4 this year than during this same time period in 2008, with Bing now accounting for 8% of all US retailer search spend, compared with only 6% in the first half of Q4 2008. Average order values on Bing are 21% higher than across all engines, which could account for the spend growth.

Compared with Google and Yahoo!, Bing also saw better YoY performance for impressions and clicks.

Source: SearchIgnite, November 2009

Local search marketing firm and platform provider WebVisible showed improvement by Bing and Yahoo vs. Google among small business advertisers. Here are the top-line trends the firm identified in Q3:

• In Q3 2009, Google accounted for 60.4% of search advertising spending. Yahoo! accounted for 26.2%, Bing 10.5% and Ask 2.4%. Google lost 5 points year-over-year (YoY) as spend shifted among the other engines.
• CTR on Bing improved by 76% YoY, while Google CTR increased by 52% in that period. Yahoo! showed the most dramatic improvement in CTR, with a YoY increase of 123%
• Average CPCs are on the rise, with Google up 14% over a year ago. Google’s average CPC was approximately 30% higher than Yahoo! or Bing in Q3 2009.

WebVisible speculates that higher CPCs on Google are contributing to “diversification” of more search ad spending across engines:

Share of Small Business Search Advertising Spend by Search Engine

Source: WebVisible, November 2009

That’s undoubtedly true because WebVisible works with a range of local media companies that manage search campaigns for small business advertisers. Those companies are always seeking to decrease their costs and protect margins.

The company said that “32% of search clicks resulted in a conversion action on an advertiser’s Web site.” Here is the range of actions taken by those clicking-through:

Percent of Converting Clicks Resulting in Action, Q3 2009

Source: WebVisible, November 2009

Here are some bits from the article:

Sprint is buying the top ads tied to phrases consumers tend to search for when they are close to making a purchase, such as “cellphone rate plans” and specific products like “Samsung Reclaim,” rather than more generic phrases they search for at the beginning of the shopping process, like “Sprint,” “AT&T” and “cellphone”  . . .

Volkswagen is coordinating its search marketing strategy with its network of 600 dealers across the country so it doesn’t end up competing against itself for the same terms and driving up prices…

[N]ew research from the search division of GroupM Search (a media buying and planning unit owned by ad holding company WPP) and online measurement firm comScore [ ] shows that consumers exposed to social media campaigns are likelier to search and click on that brand’s paid search ad.

“A few years ago, search was a little bit more progressive. Now, it’s mainstream,” says Simon McPhillips, director of media at Sprint. “The incumbents are trying to figure out, ‘What is the next new frontier?’

None of this is a surprise, nor do the examples above represent incredible sophistication on the part of marketers. It does however represent a widening of the “aperture” around search and search user behavior. As much as it may be driven by economics and not wanting to compete on brand or “generic” terms, which still constitute the majority of search queries, it reflects a better understanding that search queries occur in a larger context — of social media, display, traditional media and word-of-mouth-like viral behavior.

The article also speculates about how such trends are causing some slowing of search-ad spending at Google and how Google is pushing into other areas (display, video) as higher growth opportunities, as a consequence.

Search spending overall:

Efficient Frontier:

SearchIgnite:

Share of paid-search ad spend:

Efficient Frontier:

SearchIgnite:

Bing specifics:

Efficient Frontier offers some additional detail on Bing in particular:

Both firms said that overall search spending was up and that Bing showed growth in terms of both share of spend and clicks. In part because of these numbers, financial analysts expect Google to report strong results on Thursday this week.

The report shows that overall ad spend during Q2 2009 was down 21% from a year ago, but that’s better than the 23% decline between Q1 2008 and Q1 2009. At the same time, Q2 spending was down only 3% from Q1 of this year. Efficient Frontier says that’s an expected seasonal drop, and a sign that search advertising, like the economic downturn, is stabilizing. But the recession has impacted smaller advertisers (those spending less than $50,000/month) the most: Their spending was down 41% from Q2 2008 to Q2 2009. Large advertisers (more than $200,000/month) dropped their spending by 22%, while mid-sized advertisers upped their spend by 5%.

While ad spend overall was down, ROI was up pretty substantially year-over-year — to the tune of a 29% increase in Q2.

Sid Shah, Efficient Frontier’s Director of Business Analytics, points out that the ROI numbers are cost normalized; in other words, they’ve accounted for the fact that ROI naturally goes up when spending goes down. The report says Google offers the most efficiency of the three major search engines, with ROI up 43% Y-O-Y. Bing (and Live Search before it) showed a 24% increase in ROI from 2008 to 2009, while Yahoo dropped by 8%. “Yahoo!’s lower efficiency given stable click volume and lower CPCs indicates a likely decline in quality,” the report says.

Bing, in fact, gets special attention in the report. After Live Search lost ground in the previous two quarters, Bing gained click share and spend share as soon as it launched in early June and maintained those gains throughout the month.

As the top chart shows, Bing’s click share gains came at Yahoo’s expense; the bottom chart shows that Bing’s spend share gains came at Google’s expense. The report indicates that Bing’s paid click gains were most significant in the finance and travel sectors, with gains of 17% and 10%, respectively.

The complete Efficient Frontier Q2 2009 report can be downloaded at the company’s web site, www.efrontier.com.