Google Instant And The Power Of Suggestion

It’s going to be a long time (weeks or months) until anyone has a complete understanding of how Google Instant will change search and search marketing.

The change Google has made isn’t just to the user interface. They’ve changed how search works by dramatically increasing the power of Google Suggestions. And most importantly they’ve changed the search experience which will undoubtedly change the way people behave and react to the results they get from Google.

Search marketers—of both the paid and organic varieties—are going to feel the impact of all these changes.

Instant suggestions

Watching a Google demo of Instant, or when giving it a casual try yourself, you can’t help but be struck by the way the screen is constantly updating and adapting as you type. But if you pay close attention to what is really happening you’ll notice that all the action on the page is driven by the fact that Google Suggest is constantly executing on its top suggestion—a suggestion that usually changes (but not always) after each new character is typed.

Last night my son needed to gather and print some articles for a homework project. Using his query as an example—a search for “marine pollution”—let’s see how Google Instant really works and begin thinking about the implications for search marketers.

For the sake of this examination, we’ll type slowly enough to allow the screen to react to every single character. In the real world people don’t type that slow, and at least in my experience Google Instant either needs some time or is engineered to avoid the pointless flashing of results. So many searchers wouldn’t see all of the steps we’re about to review.

Type “M”—Suggest = mapquest

The first suggestion is that we’re looking for MapQuest. And there isn’t even a house ad for Google Maps! I assume that Mapquest is the most popular search in the world that begins with the letter “M.”

Or is it? One would expect that these suggestions are personalized in some way, based on the user’s search history, the geography of the user, the day or time of the search, or the contents of the last few messages that landing in your Gmail account (just kidding on that last one). Does everyone get mapquest for “M”?

What I find most interesting about the way Suggest is being used is that it’s 100% focused on the first suggestion in terms of the delivered results. When this was just a suggestion list, first is first. But when actually assuming that is what I want, it seems like an overweighted bet.

The second suggestion is “myspace” and the third is “msn.” Why not serve up a result set that is a weighted mixture of the results for these top three? Wouldn’t that increase the odds that what I wanted was “instantly” available?

Instant-Mapquest

Type “Ma”—Suggest = mapquest

Here’s proof that it’s not character-by-character instant. Adding the “a” changes nothing. The suggestion remains “mapquest” and neither organic nor paid results change.

This makes the focus on the first suggest seem even stranger to me. Google had already served me a full page of Mapquest results, it knew I paused for longer than 3 seconds so I saw them and didn’t click but rather kept on typing. Doesn’t that suggest that their suggestion was wrong? Aren’t the odds of “myspace” or “msn” even higher now? Shouldn’t the results start hedging their bets?

Type “Mar”—Suggest = marriott

When another character proves that I don’t want mapquest, Google Instant suggests “marriott.” They obviously know that I need a vacation. Or marriott is the top “mar” search in the world.

As others have pointed out, brands do well in the world of suggestions—both Mapquest and Marriott are brands and probably two that spend a lot on AdWords, though in this case only an ad for Marriott has appeared.

The runner-up suggestions were “marshalls,” “mario,” and “marathon grill.” More brands. This is likely simply due to the click density that these type of “head terms” get as compared to the zillions of long tail queries that begin with “mar” rather than some overt brand favoritism. But the effect is the same—brands will enjoy greater impression counts and likely some collateral incremental clicks.

Instant-Marriot

Type “Mari”—Suggest = mario

As I continue typing and get closer to one of the existing suggestions, Google Instant goes right for it. Paid ads appear for the first time. There doesn’t seem to be a consistent number of characters before AdWords ads appear—with “R” it’s just one but in many other cases it’s 4 or even 5.

Type “Marin”—Suggest = marines

Type “Marine”—Suggest = marines

Type “Marines_”—Suggest = marine corps

The trend continues, as more characters that support the top suggest yield no instant changes. It’s interesting to see (and a consistent behavior) that spaces do reset suggestions. So when I fail to type the “s” they’re expecting the suggestions and results are reset, although in this case to the derivative “marine corps.”

Now someone needs to come up with the clever name for winning two suggestions in a row with different keywords from the same website!

Type “Marine P”—Suggest = marine parts

As another typed letter proves suggest wrong yet again, it doggedly keeps trying. Switching to the other kind of marine, the suggestion now is that I learn about boat parts. “Marine plywood,” “marine paint,” and “marine power” are the next suggestions but again 100% of the organic and PPC results focus on “marine parts.”

At this point I’ve typed 8 characters (including the space) and been shown five different sets of results, none of which have a thing to do with the subject I’m looking for. I’m sure they’ve all been statistically sound probabilities. But as a user it feels a little bit like talking to someone who won’t let you finish a sentence even when you have not provided enough data to reasonably make any response.

In terms of search marketing, there might have been something along this path that caught my eye and got a click, but in that case I was diverted from my intent and may or may not ever go back and pick up the original trail. On the other hand, I may be tiring of all these incorrect results—in a way I may come to think that I’ve done at least 5 Google searches and they’re still not even close to what I want. It’s getting annoying and tiring. Or I might like the responsiveness and their attempts, they may learn more about me over time and get better at it, and I might double my use of Google.

I’m guessing there will be people in all three camps, and the eventual percentages are what we’re all waiting to know.

Type “Marine Po”—Suggest = marine power

After I enter this character we’re getting somewhere. Another page of incorrect results but my intended query is now #3 on the suggestion list.

Instant-Power

Type “Marine Pol”—Suggest = marine pollution

We’ve arrived.

Google Instant serves up results that satisfy the original intent, and the paid ads to compliment that query.

Instant-Polution

Note that when I type at a more normal pace, the screen refreshed only about 3 times before I got to my desired results. And I can’t say that the results would have impacted me at all because I was going very deliberately towards my goal. Again, this test may not reflect the experience that most searchers will have in the real world. A range of experiences and reactions is probably what we can expect.

Observations

The conversion of Google Suggest into Google Presume has gigantic implications beyond the obvious. I think it means that more people will see, and likely settle for a smaller pool of results. Both those that were diversions from and those that are “close enough” to the original desired results. If this is true then tracking and becoming relevant for the words and phrases in Google Suggest just became the #1 goal of search marketers everywhere.

What’s the URL of that new site where you can upload your current keyword list and they’ll return a harvested list of every suggestion made for every character combination seen on the way to that keyword? I don’t know yet but am sure we’ll all hear about it soon.

On the other hand, users might react to the power they now have and take more control rather than taking more suggestions. They may see the presumed results but realize that it takes very little effort to keep refining the query, seeking their original goal or perhaps even experimenting around it. They may in fact get more results, better results, and extend or at least keep alive the long tail and results diversity.

This is the great unknown. How will users react and adapt their search habits. That’s the one that will undoubtedly change over the coming weeks and to which search marketers will have to react just as surely as we have to react to the UI and algorithm changes of Google Instant.

Here is a video of my entire experiment:

YouTube Preview Image

Opinions expressed in the article are those of the guest author and not necessarily Search Engine Land.

Related Topics: Channel: SEO | Features: Analysis | Google: Instant

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About The Author: is author of Quality Score in High Resolution and founder and president of ClickEquations Inc., which provides the ClickEquations paid search management platform to large search advertisers and agencies. He writes extensively on paid search on the ClickEquations Blog and Twitter @clickequations.

Connect with the author via: Email



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  • http://www.web-first.co.uk JonH

    I think that is the main implication with google instant: the predictive searches are just going to become ridiculously important and competitive. Maybe Google should use it’s new found love of ajax to scroll through results so that being on the first page isn’t as important anymore.

    If they want to reduce the impact of seo they need to offer more results on the first page or maybe have a side bar that scrolls through the top 30 results or so … oh but wait where would adwords go?

    On a side note is anyone else getting annoyed by Google supplying results based on google suggest but actually showing your previous searches in the search box? How is that supposed to be user friendly?

  • http://www.pelicancrossing.net wendyg

    Well, this long-time user – I switched to Google instantly, the first day I saw it, probably only a week or two after it launched – is reacting by switching. I don’t know where I’m going yet, but, as I wrote a little while ago I want a divorce.

    wg

  • puffdoggydaddy

    May be a coincidence, but since Instant came online Chrome has slowed down noticeably.

    Hooray Google…keep it up, maybe you can slow it down enough that it is exactly like IE.

    Pfft.

  • http://www.npromote.com Davor Bomestar

    From a user standpoint I am happy that you can shut this down in options because it’s iritating as hell. I feel like almost every new change google makes it degrades user experience, they have really lost the track and are more concerned about themselves than users, but sooner or later that will turn against them.
    From a marketer standpoint I am also disapointed but I know we will all adapt, slowly we will get tired of this “treatmant” from Google and we will find a way to fight back. For example we might have less traffic from google but we will use other ways like social media, we will be more concerned about every user we get to keep it longterm than to get a pile of new Google visitors. I feel Google will lose it’s dominance because this is not anymore the Google 75% liked when they started using it. Soon, things will change.

  • http://www.ferreemoney.com JNFerree

    Now that Google Instant and the new Google Caffeine Algorithm is in place, it seems having high quality P5+ backlinks is not enough to rank high with the major search engines, ergo we all need to enhance our On-Page Optimization quotient in order to get indexed and rank high with the major search engines.

    There are 61 million Google searches for On-Page Optimization and your Blog is right there at the top, so I made sure to grab your RSS Feed and I’ll back for more.

  • mikerowan

    Nice experiment!

    I have noticed that instant has really slowed down my searches, and so far I see it as more of an attempt by google to try to show off rather then provide the user with a helpful experience.

    Also, i think that this will greatly impact the long tail searches that i have incorporated into my marketing efforts because of google predicting where you need to go, instead of letting the user define their experience.

    We will see.

  • Zoey

    I think there is far less to fear from Google Instant than is currently being touted.

    At the end of the day, the need to adjust practices and optimise for KWs based on Google’s preemptive search terms is must be entirely dependent on whether our real users are actually taking to the Instant results, or not. And based up on our research, they aren’t.

    We used eyetracking software to analyse users in front of Google Instant and found that none of them even noticed the Google Instant results and few even used the auto-complete term in lieu of typing their search term in full. There data and heatmap screen shots are here: http://blog.essentialtravel.co.uk/no-one-is-looking-at-google-instant.html/comment-page-1#comment-36859 But I believe Instant will give PPC managers and awful lot more to think about than SEO managers.

  • http://www.moxby.org.uk moxby-design

    This is a great experiment, but how things pan out in the future, this is not going to be certain. I read elsewhere, and the comment is true, that the essence of SEO does not change because of Google Instant, because SEO is all about high-quality, relevant content with a view to driving the right visitors to your site who are genuinely interested in what you have to say or sell.

    The comment from Zoey is interesting – about what users are actually looking at – many will type quite quickly and miss the extra results. The question from all this is does GI actually improve the relevancy of results and initially I have to say I’m doubting it simply because people may not want broader terms.

    It’s just frustrating how Google seems to dictate the rules of the game and we have to dance to their tune. But dance to it we must.

  • http://www.erocket.co.uk erocket

    The following is hardly scientific, but interesting food for thought. Lets imagine I’m looking to buy a new tennis racket. I’m in the UK, and logged into Google.co.uk with personalisation turned off. I get the following suggestions when I type in the term tennis racket. I’ve listed the results I get in the order they occur, and with the reported Global / Local Exact search volumes reported by the AdWords Keyword Tool (Beta) alongside:

    tennis rackets – 9900 / 4400
    tennis racket string – 210 / 16
    tennis racket sizes – 260 / 210
    tennis racket reviews – 1000 / 260
    tennis racket – 8100 / 1900

    Hardly scientific, and I’d love to see future test results on this, but these results suggest that keyword phrases are not being displayed based on their historical popularity. Even allowing for inaccuracies in the reported keyword volumes, that’s a hell of a difference reported for the second and third listings.

    If I were running a tennis supplies ecommerce store, this could be a game changer. If these results are commonly displayed when typing in ‘tennis racket’, it implies I would need to rethink the terms I am targeting most heavily.

    Continuing my tennis store analogy, it would not be unusual had I previously concentrated on optimising for keyword phrases reporting significantly higher popularity than ‘tennis racket string’ or ‘tennis racket sizes’. But on first look this suggests I would need to identify and target keyword phrases which, whilst reporting significantly less popularity, are now appearing in the ‘top 5′ Instant suggestions.

    I’ve already started work on this for the search terms related to the site I support, and it is throwing up similar outcomes to the example above. Fascinating stuff. This will keep us on our toes.

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