Panic Flu Searches May Have Tricked Google Flu Trends Into Thinking Things Were Worse

Google Flu Trends has been a critical tool for many trying to gauge the severity of influenza since it’s launch in 2008. Each year, Google Flu Trends attempts to show flu prevalence based off of flu-related Google search queries. Flu Trends has been quite accurate throughout its history… until this year.

Nature.com reports that Google Flu Trends overshot the percent of the U.S. population with influenza-like illness by nearly double what the CDC reported. But why? Well, for starters, the flu hit early this year. The peak of the flu  outbreak occurred late December, something that isn’t very traditional. Here’s a look at 2012-13 (dark blue) versus previous years (lighter blue):

Flu-2013

Additionally, this flu virus was extra potent as the Influenza Mortality rate was above the epidemic threshold, according to the CDC.  The timing, and severity of the flu made for instant media fodder. Experts deemed this virus a particularly bad one. New York declared a Flu emergency. The monumental coverage of the flu this year likely led to Google being wrong… very wrong.

Image Courtesy of Nature.com

Image Courtesy of Nature.com

Speculation is that the widespread media attention and overall hullabaloo around this year’s flu simply caused more people to search the topic, causing Google to show incorrect estimates. This isn’t the first time this has happened, either. Back in 2009, Google had to shift algorithms when the H1N1 virus (Swine Flu) hit due to incorrect search signals.

So, while Google Flu Trends can be a great source for determining chatter, it isn’t perfect. While Google didn’t give an official comment to Nature.com, look for more algorithm tweaks to occur to prevent this in the future.

For more information, see Nature.com or The National Journal who caught the flu over-reporting last month.

Related Topics: Channel: Search Marketing | Google | Google: Trends

Sponsored


About The Author: is the Chief Marketing Officer for Cypress North, a company that specializes in social media and search marketing services and web-based application development. He has been in the Internet marketing industry for 6+ years and specializes in Social Media Marketing. You can also find Greg on Twitter (@gregfinn) or LinkedIn.

Connect with the author via: Email



SearchCap:

Get all the top search stories emailed daily!  

Share

Other ways to share:
 

Read before commenting! We welcome constructive comments and allow any that meet our common sense criteria. This means being respectful and polite to others. It means providing helpful information that contributes to a story or discussion. It means leaving links only that substantially add further to a discussion. Comments using foul language, being disrespectful to others or otherwise violating what we believe are common sense standards of discussion will be deleted. Comments may also be removed if they are posted from anonymous accounts. You can read more about our comments policy here.

Comments are closed.

Get Our News, Everywhere!

Daily Email:

Follow Search Engine Land on Twitter @sengineland Like Search Engine Land on Facebook Follow Search Engine Land on Google+ Get the Search Engine Land Feed Connect with Search Engine Land on LinkedIn Check out our Tumblr! See us on Pinterest

 
 

Click to watch SMX conference video

Join us at one of our SMX or MarTech events:

United States

Europe

Australia & China

Learn more about: SMX | MarTech


Free Daily Search News Recap!

SearchCap is a once-per-day newsletter update - sign up below and get the news delivered to you!

 


 

Search Engine Land Periodic Table of SEO Success Factors

Get Your Copy
Read The Full SEO Guide