Obama Stimulus, Predictions And Search

In retrospect it appears that relative search query volumes (Obama vs. McCain) did presage the outcome of the November election. Now it appears they predicted the recession as well.

The Yahoo Search Blog says that search query trends subtly predicted the recession long before its formal designation by economists:

Though we learned only a month ago that America has been in a recession for a year, searches on unemployment and how to invest more safely had already started to bubble as early as last July. As people mulled over their investment strategies over the holidays, our search data showed that people are looking for conservative investment tools. Searches for “savings bonds” spiked 21 % this week, as did terms like “treasury bills” and “FDIC insured savings.”

Yahoo search queries are also eagerly anticipating the passage of an “Obama Stimulus Plan”:

In the last few days, President-elect Barack Obama’s economic plan seems foremost on people’s minds – searches for “Obama stimulus package” in the last week quadrupled compared to the week before. Related searches include “stimulus checks” (up 80% compared to last week), “obama stimulus plan” (up 309%), and “second stimulus rebate checks” (up 75%).

But this query trend also reflects the fact that the stimulus plan has been in the traditional news (newspapers, TV, radio). Prompted by this coverage, people are searching to get more information.

Beyond the fact that “stimulus” is in the “zeitgeist” what we also see in these examples is the way that traditional media directly influence search query volumes and search behavior.