Google Still Dominant, But Baidu Benefitting From Google Ban In China Says eMarketer

Google continues to dominate the global search market with 54.7 percent of search ad revenues worldwide in 2014. But mainland China’s ban on Google is giving Baidu, the search leader in that country, a huge advantage. Baidu will see its global share of search ad revenues increase from 6.4 percent in 2013 to 8.8 percent in 2015, according to new data from eMarketer.

“Baidu is reaping the benefits of Google’s ban in China—and of course, a massive and growing internet user population,” says eMarketer in the report, which breaks out search ad revenues from the overall digital advertising market for the first time.

The research firm notes that China will account for $14.90 billion, or 32.8 percent, of the global search spend in 2015. The U.S., by comparison, will account for $25.66 billion in ad spend this year. But, with rapid growth search growth of 32.8 percent this year — nearly double the overall growth of 16.2 percent — it’s easy to see that China could soon eclipse U.S. search spend. Spend that Google is missing out on.

For another perspective on future growth, the U.S. has internet penetration of over 86 percent of the population, while in China, just 46 percent has internet access according to Internet Live Stats.

Google’s search ad share is expected to shrink marginally from 55.2 percent in 2013 to 54.5 percent in 2015. Google’s search ad revenues will continue to far outweigh its competitors this year. The company is expected to bring in $38.42 billion in search revenues in 2014 and $4446 billion in 2015. Baidu’s revenue is expected to grow from $5.35 in 2014 to $7.18 in 2015.

Microsoft and Yahoo will see their combined search share grow by just 6.5 percent in 2015. Bing saw strong growth in 2014, with its search ad share rising from 3.7 percent in 2013 to 4.2 percent in 2014. Bing’s share is expected to hold steady in 2015. Yahoo is expected to see stronger revenue growth in 2015, rising to $1.90 billion from $1.78 billion in 2014. However, Yahoo’s global share will continue to shrink from 2.5 percent in 2014 to 2.3 percent in 2015. Last week, the two companies have extended talks to renegotiate their search deal which hit its five year mark in March.

Search is expected to make up $81.59 billion globally, up 16.2 percent from 2014. Search is expected to grow at nearly 10 percent a year through 2019 to top $130.58 billion globally.