Google can’t decide if the web is thriving – or dying
Is the web alive or dead? To Google, it’s Schrödinger’s cat – a paradox that shifts depending on who’s talking and where.
In a Friday court filing, Google’s lawyers wrote:
- “The fact is that today, the open web is already in rapid decline.”
That line directly contradicts what Google executives and representatives have been saying for months.
- CEO Sundar Pichai (May, The Verge interview): “When we crawl, when we look at the number of web pages available to us, that number has gone up by 45% in the last two years alone. … I think people are producing a lot of content and I see consumers consuming a lot of content.”
- Nick Fox, VP of Search (May, AI Inside podcast): “From our point of view, the web is thriving.”
- John Mueller, Search Advocate: “Finding a balance is hard, there’s so much hype, but seeing so many folks trying to make sites more visible in AI, it’s clear that the web is thriving.”
Yet in court, Google is saying the web is already collapsing – all to further its argument against being forced to divest its ad business.
Why we care. Google can’t have it both ways. Either the web is thriving (as execs tell the press and public) or it’s declining (as lawyers tell a judge). If it’s declining, publishers’ fears about AI eating their traffic are vindicated. If it’s thriving, why is Google arguing the opposite in court?
The full quote. It appears on Page 5 of this document:
- “The fact is that today, the open web is already in rapid decline and Plaintiffs’ divestiture proposal would only accelerate that decline, harming publishers who currently rely on open-web display advertising revenue.”
Why is the web in rapid decline? Because advertisers and tech companies are moving away from traditional display ads toward AI-driven formats, CTV, and retail media, Google’s lawyers argue. They use this as part of their legal defense, saying that forcing structural remedies would harm publishers by speeding up this decline, rather than restoring competition:
- Ad spend shifting: Advertisers and competitors are prioritizing Connected TV and retail media, pulling investment away from open-web display.
- AI disruption: New AI tools are transforming ad creation, buying, and selling, making open-web display less central.
- Measured decline: Open-web display fell from 40% of AdWords impressions in 2019 to just 11% by early 2025. (Yes, Google Ads is referred to as “AdWords” even though that name has been retired since June 2018.)
- Legal framing: Google argues divestiture would worsen this trend by further harming publishers reliant on open-web ads.
The bigger picture. Google is under fire for how AI Overviews is changing search and the web’s business model. Pichai insisted the company will still send more traffic to publishers.
- Last month, in a heavily criticized blog post, Google’s head of Search Elizabeth Reid claimed AI is making search better, traffic to sites is “relatively stable,” and the web is entering its “most exciting era yet.” This while offering no facts or stats. The blog post was universally derided by search marketers.
The contradiction: Publicly, Google positions itself as a defender and champion of the open web. Privately, in court, it’s painting the web as a sinking ship.
Reaction. Mike King, CEO of iPullRank, on X:
- “Surely they had nothing to do with it.”
Lily Ray, VP, SEO strategy and research at Amsive, on X:
- “Wait is it thriving or in rapid decline? Can’t keep up.”
Pedro Dias, head of SEO (product) at JoVE, on X:
- “Well… It’s not like everyone was buying Google’s claims that ‘the web is thriving’. It’s important to understand that the claim that the ‘open web is already in rapid decline’ is made in the context of arguing against the proposed divestiture of Google’s ad products, AdX and DFP.
- “Google’s lawyers contend that forcing the sale of these advertising tools would worsen the existing decline of the open web and harm publishers who rely on revenue from open-web display advertising. So. If the web is bad and forcing them to divest from AdX and DFP would make it worse, why would it be thriving for every other scenario?”
Jeremy Knauff, CEO of Spartan Media, on X:
- “If only we had some idea what entity had enough power to force the open web into rapid decline,,, Was there an entity that stole content from millions of publishers, removed those publishers from the search results, and then redirected all traffic to Google’s properties and content?”
Update, Sept. 8. Google’s Vice President, Global Ads, Dan Taylor on X pushed back on the language used by the company’s lawyers:
- “…in the preceding sentence, it’s clear that Google’s referring to ‘open-web display advertising’ – not the open web as a whole. As you know, ad budgets follow where users spend time and marketers see results, increasingly in places like Connected TV, Retail Media & more.
Ehhh. Clearly, it isn’t clear.
Update, Sept. 9. Jason Kint, CEO of Digital Content Next, in an X thread, highlighted that lawyers are “cleaning up” the language.
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