• http://www.rimmkaufman.com/ George Michie

    Really interesting research, Sid. We shop when we feel good and we feel better when the weather is good. One point on bidding though: the fact that online sales are depressed by snow does not imply that the conversion rates or average order sizes are lower, it could simply be an issue of search volume. If that’s the case, companies bidding to advertising efficiency objectives should not change bidding strategies unless they can determine that the value per click is different, not simply the click volume. Companies selling snow boards might also see trends different from those selling gardening supplies :-)

  • Edwin Romero

    We should start optimizing the weather.

  • Jeff Nogaj

    Great post! For food delivery we’ve seen a direct correlation with poor weather, increased search volume, and increased conversion rates. The biggest problem right now with weather triggered bidding is the inability to scale the model when running many PPC campaigns targeted to hundreds of different cities. We need a tool that can match campaign locations with a dynamic weather feed to automatically bid up and down in real time. Does anybody have any thoughts on how to automate a bidding strategy like this?

  • Pat Grady

    We see inverse with one client – foul national weather and everyone’s inside with nothing to do, bored, they search for things like “learn to play guitar”. Loves me a massive snow storm (just not here in Florida).

  • Chris Georgakopoulos

    How weather affects sales is different from place to place. You cannot extract generic assumptions. For example how rain days affect online sales is quite different in London compared to Athens. In Athens, rain days are rare and are usually boosting online sales. People know that rain will last for a max of 1-2 days, so they stay inside surfing the web, because for such a short duration they can postpone a large range of going-out activities. (Example from apparel industry, we’re actually rain-dancing to see our sales climb :-)

  • Weather Trends Int.

    Jeff, Weather Trends International may be able to help you out. We have the ability to match any location in the world with our weather data (both historical and forecast up to a year in advance). We’d love to discuss with you further, please check us out at http://www.wxtrends.com

  • Adam Francis Higdon

    Hi Jeff- maybe the tools looks at all of your markets in aggregate and executes bids based upon predicted cost and conversions in those markets – again in aggregate. And maybe you can adjust your model half life so that the data being used is weighted to show more recent trends, taking into account the traffic based upon weather patterns. And there are some other details to share, but you would need to call your friends down the street on Washington at the Adobe office for us to share more detail. But you are on to something I can assure you!

  • Joy

    hello we are running an classifieds in india.when there is raining heavy in of listed cities on our site,we experience 30% to 40% traffic drop particular from that city only

    editor – http://www.chillyads.com

  • Sid Shah

    Indeed. If the ROI doesnt change, one needn’t change bids. Regarding snow boards, there is actually a paper looking at the connection between weather and lift ticket sales http://jtr.sagepub.com/content/47/3/359.abstract

  • Sid Shah

    I am planning to look at a larger dataset by vertical and geos and also look at other metrics like ROI,not just traffic and revenue.Ultimately, I believe that website sales might be positive or negatively correlated with weather based on the business and people’s attitudes to weather in the region. So one must analyze their own dataset to draw conclusions for thier business.

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